Florida Gubernatorial Candidates Trade Blows, Rally Along Generational Divide

Florida’s Republican primary for governor is entering its final stretch, and while Congressman Byron Donalds remains the clear frontrunner, businessman James Fishback has built a campaign that is attracting an unusual amount of attention from younger voters and conservative activists across the state.

James Fishback at a campaign event, photo credit: James Fishback Facebook Page

The Republican primary will determine who is likely to become Florida’s next governor. Governor Ron DeSantis is term-limited, and Republicans have dominated statewide elections in Florida for more than a decade. The GOP has also built a significant voter registration advantage in the state, making the Republican primary one of the most consequential elections on the Florida ballot. Donalds remains heavily favored in most polling. A poll released on July 20th showed Donalds at 43 percent, with Fishback at 12 percent, Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins at 11 percent and former House Speaker Paul Renner at 2 percent.

Still, the race has not developed entirely according to the conventional political playbook. Fishback has attracted large crowds at restaurants, diners and campaign events throughout Florida, with supporters sometimes lining up to hear him speak. His campaign has relied heavily on social media and appearances on alternative media platforms rather than the traditional political infrastructure that has helped Donalds build a massive financial advantage.

James Paskalides, host of the conservative podcast America Unfiltered, believes Fishback’s campaign should not be dismissed simply because he trails in the polls.

“I would say his campaign is very viable,” Paskalides said, “and at the very least it moves the Overton window a lot for more America First candidates in the future.”

Paskalides believes Fishback could still pull off an upset, comparing his potential path to the recent upset victory of Zohran Mamdani in New York City politics.

“I do think he has a legitimate chance at winning,” Paskalides said. “We saw this happen in New York City with Mamdani.”

The biggest challenge facing Fishback is money. Donalds has built a formidable campaign operation backed by President Donald Trump and numerous Republican officials and conservative organizations. Donalds’ campaign reported more than $81 million raised by his campaign and affiliated political committee as of June, while his campaign has pointed to polling showing him with majority support among Republican primary voters.

Fishback does not have the same financial resources, but Paskalides argues that he does not necessarily need them if he can continue winning the battle for attention online.

“Right now on social media James Fishback is winning,” Paskalides said. “He is getting more views than any other Florida candidate.”

Paskalides believes Fishback’s campaign should continue pursuing appearances on large podcasts and alternative media programs in an effort to reach younger voters who may not consume traditional political media. He has over 482,000 followers on Instagram alone at the time of publication.

“He needs to just keep getting on big shows similar to Tucker,” Paskalides said, “and also do the Trump method.”

He pointed to President Donald Trump’s use of podcasts and other nontraditional media during his campaigns as an example of how Republican candidates can reach younger voters outside the traditional political establishment.

“Trump went on every popular podcast and it really gave him a boost in the polls with the youth,” Paskalides said.

For Fishback, the emphasis on younger voters is particularly important because his political appeal appears to be different from that of many traditional Republican candidates.

Paskalides believes there is a growing generational divide within the Republican electorate, with younger voters increasingly skeptical of established political institutions and politicians.

“When it comes to the younger people, again, there’s a generation divide,” Paskalides said. “They don’t trust the establishment.”

That distrust extends beyond traditional Republican institutions, according to Paskalides. He believes many young voters are looking for candidates who are willing to challenge political organizations, lobbyists and other groups they associate with Washington’s establishment.

“They’re looking very specifically at lobbyists,” Paskalides said, pointing to Fishback’s opposition to taking money from AIPAC as an example of the type of message that resonates with some younger voters.

“When Fishback comes on and says, ‘I’m not gonna take money from AIPAC,’” Paskalides said, “I think that really does resonate with a lot of the younger people.”

That anti-establishment message has helped Fishback build a following that is arguably larger than his position in the polls would suggest. His campaign has become particularly visible online, where his confrontational style and willingness to challenge Donalds have generated significant attention.

The contrast between the two campaigns was on full display this week when Fishback escalated his attacks on Donalds by making a serious allegation involving the congressman.

At a press conference Thursday, Fishback said a purported whistleblower had alleged that Donalds and fellow Congressman Cory Mills were the subjects of a federal sex-trafficking investigation. Fishback said he was giving Donalds the opportunity to disclose the alleged investigation himself, while acknowledging that both congressmen are entitled to the presumption of innocence.

“Let me be crystal clear: Our Constitution entitles Congressmen Mills and Donalds to the presumption of innocence,” Fishback said. “But while they deserve that presumption, voters deserve transparency.”

Fishback said he had specifically given Donalds an opportunity to make the alleged investigation public.

“I specifically gave Congressman Donalds the opportunity to make the fact he is under investigation public,” Fishback told the media, “but he chose not to.”

The allegation has not been substantiated, and the Department of Justice has denied that such an investigation of Donalds is taking place. The Donalds campaign called the allegations “completely false.”

Gates McGavick, Donalds’ communications director, told the media that the campaign “will not be distracted by this baseless and defamatory sideshow, and neither should you.”

Donalds himself dismissed Fishback more bluntly, saying, “the guy really is a clown.”

Fishback responded by insisting that he did not intend to turn the allegation into a campaign advertising issue.

“This is the first and last time I will discuss this publicly,” Fishback wrote. “My campaign will not run any television ads or mailers detailing any of this because this is not political.”

The controversy comes on top of an already unusually contentious Republican primary.

Donalds has faced a series of controversies during his congressional career and gubernatorial campaign. Most recently, Collier County School Board member Kelly Mason filed a lawsuit accusing Donalds of assault and threatening behavior during a 2022 confrontation inside a Naples grocery store.

Video of the confrontation was published, although the footage does not establish all of the allegations contained in Mason’s lawsuit. Donalds’ campaign has described the lawsuit as politically motivated. The lawsuit stems from a longstanding dispute involving Mason and Donalds’ wife, Erika Donalds, who were previously business partners.

Fishback has also repeatedly attacked Donalds over his record and personal conduct, while positioning himself as a more aggressive alternative to the congressman. That strategy has helped him attract a particularly enthusiastic group of supporters, even though his campaign remains substantially behind Donalds financially and in most polling. A June Public Sentiment Institute survey illustrated the potential for Fishback’s support to grow. That poll found Donalds at 37.3 percent and Fishback at 26.7 percent in a four-way primary, while a hypothetical head-to-head matchup showed Donalds leading Fishback by only 41.5 percent to 38.7 percent. Fishback also led Donalds among younger voters in the survey.

A later Public Sentiment Institute survey conducted June 29 and 30 showed the two candidates tied at 32.3 percent each, although the poll has not been reflected in the broader polling averages.

A candidate who can build a devoted following among highly engaged voters can sometimes outperform expectations, particularly in a low-turnout primary. Paskalides believes that is the path Fishback must pursue.

“Unless a mysterious America First billionaire comes in and donates a ton of money to Fishback,” he said, “he will never keep up with the funding of Jay Collins and Byron Donalds.”

But Paskalides does not believe that necessarily means Fishback cannot win.

“He can beat them without it,” Paskalides said. “He just needs to keep the social media war going the way he has been.”

Fishback has built a significant online presence and has become one of the more recognizable figures in the Republican primary despite starting the campaign with little of the institutional support enjoyed by Donalds. The question now is whether attention can be converted into votes.

Florida’s Republican primary is scheduled for August 18, leaving candidates only a short time to persuade undecided voters. Donalds enters the final stretch with the advantages that normally decide Republican primaries: money, endorsements, name recognition and a substantial polling lead.

Fishback is attempting to overcome those advantages with something different. His campaign is built around direct communication, social media, younger voters and an aggressive rejection of the political establishment.

Whether that strategy can overcome a massive financial disadvantage remains uncertain. But the fact that a relatively unknown candidate has become a major topic of conversation in Florida Republican politics suggests that Fishback’s campaign has already accomplished something that cannot be measured entirely by his position in the polls.

“At the very least, it moves the Overton window a lot for more America First candidates in the future,” Paskalides told ALM.

The Florida Republican primary will determine whether Fishback’s movement is capable of doing more than changing the conversation. On August 18, Republican voters will decide whether it can actually change the result. Voters in many Florida counties have already cast their ballots at early voting locations.