Only 21% of Americans Think Trump will Actually Give Out $5000 if Republicans Win

President Donald Trump has promised Americans a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if Republicans maintain control of Congress in November, but a new poll shows that most Americans do not believe the checks will ever arrive. Only 21% of registered voters told the Economist/YouGov poll that Trump would definitely or probably deliver the $5,000 payment, while 57% said he probably or definitely would not.

While 61% of Republicans said they support sending $5,000 to every adult citizen, only 45% believe Trump will actually deliver the payment, meaning a majority of Republicans do not expect the promise to become reality. Democrats are even more skeptical, with only 4% believing Trump will deliver the checks, while 96% say he will not.

The overall numbers are also less enthusiastic about the proposal than Trump’s announcement might suggest. Among registered voters, 48% support the government sending $5,000 to every adult citizen, while 40% oppose it, and independents are divided at 41% in favor and 44% opposed. Among likely voters, another analysis of the same poll found that 43% favored the checks while 45% opposed them.

The skepticism may have something to do with the fact that this is not the first time Trump has floated the idea of sending Americans large checks. Trump previously promoted the possibility of $5,000 payments tied to savings from the Department of Government Efficiency and later discussed $2,000 tariff rebate checks, but neither proposal resulted in a nationwide payment.

That history creates a classic “boy who cried wolf” problem for the president. Trump can announce another enormous check, put a catchy name on it and tie it to a Republican victory, but voters have now heard promises of government money before without seeing those promises turn into checks in their mailboxes.

There is also a very different problem with the proposal for fiscal conservatives. The United States is carrying an enormous federal debt, and the idea of borrowing or otherwise finding more than $1 trillion to send $5,000 checks to roughly 240 million adult citizens is difficult to reconcile with the traditional Republican emphasis on controlling government spending. Reuters estimated that the proposed payments would cost approximately $1.2 trillion, while tariff revenue collected during the fiscal year was nowhere near enough to cover the cost.

Some Republicans have already raised concerns about the proposal’s impact on inflation and the federal government’s fiscal position. Several GOP lawmakers have expressed skepticism, warning that a massive new round of government payments could add to inflation and worsen the country’s fiscal stability.

The betting markets are even more skeptical than the voters. Polymarket currently gives Trump only a 4% chance of creating a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027, with traders overwhelmingly positioned against the payment being created under the market’s specific rules. A separate Polymarket contract puts the probability of a tariff dividend being created by the end of 2026 at just 6%. All told, it’s unlikely that Trump will make good on this campaign promise.