Democrats take Lead in Key Ohio Races

Ohio’s two biggest statewide races are shaping up to be much closer than Republicans might have expected heading into the final weeks of the 2026 campaign. A new Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll shows Democrats holding three-point leads in both the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race, while a separate question reveals that Ohio voters still expect Republicans to win both contests.

Image: Vivek for Ohio

The poll of 1,000 likely Ohio voters, conducted September 1-10, found Democrat Amy Acton leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 48% to 45% in the governor’s race. Democrat Sherrod Brown held the exact same 48%-45% advantage over Republican Jon Husted in the Senate race. Both margins fall within the poll’s 3.96-point margin of error, meaning neither race can be considered statistically separated at this stage.

Despite trailing Acton in the ballot test, 62% of respondents said they believe Ramaswamy will win the governor’s race, compared with just 36% who expect Acton to prevail. The Senate race shows a similar divide, with 53% expecting Husted to defeat Brown even though Brown leads Husted among voters’ current preferences.

That gap says something important about how Ohio voters view their state politically. Voters can tell pollsters they currently prefer a Democrat while still believing that Ohio remains fundamentally more favorable territory for Republicans, which is precisely how BGSU political science professor Robert Alexander described the results.

The numbers also show that the political environment itself has become a problem for Republicans. Sixty-one percent of Ohio voters say the country is on the wrong track, while 52% say Ohio is on the wrong track. Forty-four percent say their own economic situation has gotten worse, compared with only 17% who say it has improved.

The economy is the biggest issue driving voters’ concerns. Forty percent identified the economy as one of their top three issues, followed by inflation at 34%, government corruption at 28% and health care at 24%. The numbers suggest that voters are entering the final stretch of the campaign with a heavy focus on their wallets and their perception of how government is functioning.

President Donald Trump’s standing in the state is another potential problem for Republican candidates. Trump has a net approval rating of minus 16 in the BGSU poll, with roughly six in 10 Ohio voters disapproving of his job performance. His ratings on issues including tariffs and the Iran war are also underwater.

That does not necessarily mean Ohio voters are abandoning Republicans. In fact, the rest of the poll provides considerable evidence to the contrary.

The generic congressional ballot is essentially even, with Democrats receiving 48% support and Republicans receiving 47%. More importantly, voters continue to expect Republicans to win the state’s two major statewide races despite the Democrats’ narrow leads in the actual ballot questions.

There is also a significant enthusiasm gap that could matter as Election Day approaches. Sixty-two percent of Democrats surveyed said they are motivated to vote, compared with just 29% of Republicans. That 33-point difference is one of the largest warning signs for Republicans in the survey, although self-reported enthusiasm does not necessarily translate directly into turnout.

The Senate race has another unusual wrinkle. Brown, who served as Ohio’s senator before losing his seat to Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024, is the only major candidate in either statewide race to have a positive net favorability rating. Brown is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 41%, while Husted stands at 35% favorable and 46% unfavorable.

Ramaswamy’s numbers are similarly underwater. He is viewed favorably by 36% of voters and unfavorably by 47%, while Acton sits at 41% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Neither candidate in the governor’s race has a particularly strong personal image, which helps explain why the race appears to be tracking the broader political environment more than either candidate has managed to dominate it.

Brown also benefits from an enormous amount of name recognition, although the poll contains a strange reminder that even a familiar political name does not mean voters are following every detail of the race. One in four respondents incorrectly identified Brown as Ohio’s current senator, even though Husted currently holds the seat.

Another issue that could disrupt the traditional partisan lines is the growing backlash against data centers. Seventy-five percent of Ohio voters oppose data-center construction in their own communities, while 63% oppose construction elsewhere in Ohio and 55% oppose it nationally. Even more strikingly, 78% support a temporary statewide ban on new data-center construction until more information can be gathered about their effects.

The issue has already become a political headache in parts of rural Ohio, where residents have raised concerns about electricity consumption, farmland and the tax incentives being offered to attract massive technology projects. Candidates in both parties have been forced to address the backlash as opposition to data centers has moved from a local issue into statewide politics.

For Republicans, the Ohio numbers present a difficult combination. The state still appears to have a strong Republican foundation, and voters themselves continue to believe Republican candidates are more likely to win, but the current political environment is giving Democrats an opening in races that traditionally would have been more comfortable territory for the GOP.

For Democrats, the numbers offer an opportunity but hardly a guarantee. Acton and Brown are both leading by only three points, both margins are inside the poll’s margin of error, and Ohio voters still expect the Republican candidates to prevail. The poll therefore looks less like evidence of a Democratic takeover and more like evidence that Republicans are facing an unusually competitive environment in a state where they have held a substantial advantage in recent statewide elections.

Ohio voters are unhappy with the direction of the country, worried about the economy and showing unusually high Democratic motivation, while at the same time continuing to view Republicans as the more likely winners. The question heading into November is whether those competing forces remain in place or whether the state’s underlying Republican lean eventually reasserts itself in the ballot box.